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Thursday, March 17, 2005

Just A Baseball Dilettante

That's all I am. True baseball nuts do things like these: The Fourth Outfielder does the math to see what effect this season's reduced foul ground at Dodger Stadium might have on run scoring
From 1999-2004, there were 906 foul outs (418 by Dodger hitters, 488 by opponents) at Dodger Stadium. DS had a 1.25 park factor for foul outs. The average ballpark saw 730 foul outs. Oh yeah - this data is with interleague play removed.

So, there were 906/(72*6) = 2.1 foul outs per game, or one per team. If there were no foul outs, you would have one (or 1.05) PA per game with an out, or -.30 lwts runs, turn into a regular PA (0 lwts runs). So with no foul outs, you’d expect an increase of .32 runs per team per game (-.3*1.05).

Obviously, there will still be foul outs.
J. C. Bradbury, of the Sabernomics blog, after wading through years of data has a guest article at Baseball Analysts in which he examines how much of an effect Leo Mazzone, Braves pitching coach, has on pitchers while they're with the Braves
When separating pitchers into their defined roles, relievers appeared to benefit more from their time under Mazzone than starters did, though not by much. For starters, having Leo Mazzone as a pitching coach was worth about 0.41 earned runs per 9 innings or 1 earned run per 22 innings. For relievers, Mazzone was good for about a 0.68 reduction in earned runs per 9 innings, or 1 run per 13 innings. It's pretty clear that he helps both classes of pitchers quite a bit, but he seems to do a little bit more for relievers than starters.
And David Pinto has provided an amazing resource for baseball fans of all persuasions with his Baseball Musings Day By Day Database. Here, for instance, are Carlos Delgado's first four games in the major leagues

Game Date Opponent AB Runs Hits HR RBI BB K
10/01/93 At BAL 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
10/03/93 At BAL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
04/04/94 Vs. CHA 4 1 2 1 2 0 2
04/05/94 Vs. CHA 3 1 2 1 1 1 0
8 2 4 2 3 2 2


.500 .600 1.250 1.850 - 4.0

Baseball Musings is also tracking the congressional hearings on steroids in baseball.


Gazetteer said...


And I thought I had the Jones bad when it got to the point that I was spending too much time with my Fantasy League team.

These folks are obsessively obsessive.


Which has me wondering - any stats on how changing a ballpark's food can alter it's stats?

MackJohnny said...

Don't know about a ballpark's stats, RossK, but after a quick trip to Baseball Musings Database I can tell that before Randall Simon hit a Milwaukee sausage with his bat on July 9, 2003 he was hitting like this:
.272 .300 .417 .716 32.57

After July 9 until the end of 2003, Simon hit like this
.280 .320 .456 .776 20.22

What kind of league are you in? Roto? auction? A keeper league?