Blue Jays Offense

Here are some rough offensive projections I've done of the players who would be in the Blue Jays line up and on the bench according to the roster as of today. Over the next couple of days, I'll post projections for the Yankees and Red Sox, then try and do a comparison of the three offenses. Following that, I will move on to same for the respective pitching staffs.

Reed Johnson LF Platoon
 G PA H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO BA
 137 490 122 22 4 9 63 58 24 85 0.274
Frank Catalanotto LF Platoon
 112 418 112 27 4 7 51 48 30 48 0.298
Vernon Wells CF
 150 658 168 35 3 27 86 90 48 84 0.278
Alexis Rios RF
 134 499 125 23 6 7 66 49 29 95 0.270
Troy Glaus 3B
 150 632 137 28 2 35 89 98 82 138 0.254
Russ Adams SS or 2B
 100 389 89 19 4 7 49 45 35 40 0.273
Aaron Hill 2B or SS
 105 407 99 25 3 3 49 40 34 41 0.274
Lyle Overbay 1B
 146 583 144 38 1 16 72 70 72 103 0.284
Shea Hillenbrand DH/3B Platoon 
 148 616 169 36 2 17 78 84 25 68 0.296
Corey Koskie DH/3B Platoon
 110 458 102 23 1 16 60 53 51 98 0.257
Eric Hinske DH Platoon
 146 566 127 31 3 15 74 68 51 114 0.254
Greg Zaun Starting Catcher
 115 418 91 18 1 8 48 46 55 59 0.253
John McDonald Utility Infielder
 70 164 37 6 1 1 18 13 9 21 0.242
Guillermo Quiros Backup Catcher
 14 45 8 2 0 0 3 5 2 11 0.200

In process

I'm crunching a few numbers for the 25 man rosters of the Jays, Sox and Yankees to see how they would compare to each other if the season started today. I'll have a post about it up tomorrow afternoon.

Contention Intentions

I'm slow getting to this, but the Blue Jays finally got the power bat they were looking for when they traded Miguel Batista and Orlando Hudson to the Diamondbacks for Troy Glaus and prospect Sergio Santos. The accquisition of Glaus, and of Lyle Overbay earlier this month, plus the Burnett and Ryan free agency signings, should give the Jays a realistic shot at the 2006 AL East title.

Glaus strikes out a fair amount, but he gets on base regularly and hits with bigtime power. He's also entering his age 29 season, which means he is a player who should be right in the prime of his playing abilities.

I'm beat to a snot right now — long, migrainey day for me — but I'll check in tomorrow with a more indepth look at how I think the Jays now look in the East.

In the meantime, take a look at Glaus' graphs and stats over at Fangraphs, my new favourite place to research players.

A True Web Novel?

I just took a read through The Sixth Tool, a blog, supposedly being written by a professional baseball scout, which is drawing interest here and there. My impression is that it's a baseball novel in progress, an examination of the conflict between the traditional and sabermetric approaches to the game. A morality play of sorts. I recommend starting at the beginning with the post titled Opening Day, and then reading through the archives.

Hurry up, please. It's time

According to Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail, the Toronto Blue Jays have struck again and signed starting pitcher A. J. Burnett, their second premier free agent of this offseason. This comes relatively hot on the heels of the Jays signing relief pitcher B. J. Ryan to be their closer. The Ryan deal (5 years, $47 million — the most total dollars ever given to a reliever) has been widely criticized. I'm sure the Burnett deal (5 years, $55 million) will be too. Yet I can't help but think these are the best deals the Jays have made since they traded Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the Padres on December 5, 1990, for Joe Carter and a young secondbaseman named Roberto Alomar.

Why do I think these are good signings when it seems like a lot of years and a lot of money in both cases? A few reasons (the stats are based on the the last three seasons):

1. Both pitchers are entering what should be their prime years. Ryan will be 30 when the 2006 season starts, Burnett will be 29.
2. Ryan murders opposing batters. He has struck out 12.23 batters per 9 innings pitched. That's a high ratio even for a reliever.
   
3. Burnett is no slouch with the Ks either. His ratio is 8.41 K/9. Considering that 7 K/9 generally points to an effective starter, Burnett is already looking good (Roy Halladay's ratio is 6.77).
4. Neither Burnett nor Ryan allow many home runs, their HR/9's respectively are .68 and .37.
5. Why so few home runs? Maybe it's because they give up more ground balls than fly balls: Burnett's G/F ratio is 1.73 (it was 2.42 last season), Ryan's is 1.34.
   

And one more reason: these two signings now allow the Jays to trade some pitching for two more hitters their offense sorely needs. It won't be long (spring at the latest) before we see Miguel Batista and some combination of Ted Lilly, Gustavo Chacin, David Bush, Dustin McGowan, Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, and Orlando Hudson traded for home run power. (I'm pretty sure the Burnett signing rules out a Hudson trade, he'll be needed for all those ground balls that Halladay and Burnett induce).

Burnett and Ryan. As a Jays fan down here in the Maritimes I feel roight foine today. I ain't been this excited about the Jays since '93. I'm hungry to see who the hitters are that Ricciardi comes up with to complement these pitching moves. I'd love to see Jonny Gomes in Jays uniform. I'd do Batista for Brad Wilkerson in half-a-second. Would JP? How about about Chacin and Alexis Rios for Wilkerson? I'd do that one even quicker. But what do I know? Nothing, that's what -- except that JP ain't done and I ain't gonna bitch and moan about who he trades and whoever the hitters are that he comes up with until I see how the '06 season plays out. I do believe I learned a little from the Hillenbrand deal. The Jays are halfway to where they need and want to be and I don't think the GM is geared for halfway measures. Might be spring before we see how the lineup and rotation shake out. I can wait, and I'll be waiting with anticipation rather than trepidation.

I only have one question. With Halladay and Burnett at the top of the rotation, how often is the the infield carpet at Rogers Centre scheduled to be changed?